Economic Charts

All economic charts are at the bottom of the page.

Friday, December 3, 2010

Monthly ISM NMI Update

Novembers ISM NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) which was reported to be improved and in some ways it was and some ways it was not. ISM NMI is the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It attempts to  measure employment, inventories, new orders, prices, backlog and such based on surveyed information from about 400 purchasing agents.  The forecasted number called for an index of 54.7, but the actual headline number was 55.0.  
Figure 1.

Figure 2 shows Business Activity and Backlog Orders decreased which is a negative sign for current business.  New orders and Export orders were up, which is a positive sign as it fills a pipeline of work and shows increasing business.
Figure 2.

In figure 3 Prices decreased which is very good for business (cheaper to produce goods).  The concerns here are the build up of inventories, if this is to fill orders it may be a wash.  We will have to see what happens in next months report to orders continue to grow.
 Figure 3.

FED POMO Purchase Update

The FED Performed another POMO Purchase today of $6.810 billion dollars.  This brings the total since August 17th 2010 to $160.192 billion dollars printed.  Precious metals definitely not keeping up with this constant devaluation of the dollar through printing.
Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:12/03/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/06/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:06/15/2013 - 11/30/2014
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$6,810
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$21,668

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Octobers ETF Money Flows

October saw inflows of almost $14 billion dollars into ETF's.  This is down slightly from September.  Figure one shows the hike in ETF investment in September, which is now starting to slow down.
Figure 1.

The big winner in the ETF''s was clearly Emerging Markets, seen in figure 2.  Emerging markets had a $8 billion dollar inflow in October, being responsible for 57% of the aggregate inflow, seen in figure 1. 

Figure 2.

Large Cap and Natural Resources were the only sectors that actually experienced a negative flow (outflow).  If Emerging markets is muted from the data (as it seems to be an outlier in the data) we see that commodities, financial and Technology are the big winners in October (ref figure 3).

Monthly Pending Home Sales

Octobers Pending Home Sales was much better than expected today. Pending Home Sales is the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.  The forecast called for -0.7% change, but actually came in at 10.4% beating expectations. 
When breaking down the pending home sales by region we find that the Western region was in the worst shape with a -0.29% change.  The Midwest experienced the greatest increase in pending home sales with the Northeast following closely behind.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

This weeks Initial Unemployment Claims got worse that the week prior, but the market shook this off because, for the lack of a better word, it was a lower high.  It would seem the short term trend is down, but we need to get through the Holidays to really know what is going on.  Initial Claims is the number of persons that filed for unemployment for the first time in the prior week.  The forecast called for 425k, but the actual headline number was 436k, which was worse that last weeks revised 410k.

FED POMO Purchased Update

The FED performed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase today of $8.309 billion dollars.    This brings the total since August 17th 2010 to $154.012 billion dollars. You can really see the pick-up in money printing here and the cumulative amount is pointing higher and higher in a shorter amount of time.  Already in November and 2 days in December we have eclipsed the amount injected from 8/17/2010 to 11/1/2010.  Since 11/4/2010 the FED has injected $89.552 billion to date.
Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:12/02/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/03/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:02/15/2018 - 08/15/2020
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$8,309
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$27,704

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Monthly ISM PMI

Novembers ISM PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index), which is a Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry was released today. The ISM PMI is a leading indicator of economic health because business react quickly to the economic conditions. It is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The forecast called for an index of 56.4, but the actual headline number was 56.6.  This was considered a yawn as it beat forecast, but failed to beat the months prior 56.9 reading.
 Figure 1.
New orders, production, exports were down (not good) while inventories & imports increased (bad).  Prices pretty much stayed flat to slightly down.  Over all not a great report.
Figure 2.

 Figure 3.

Weekly Fund Flows

This weeks Fund flows is starting to show a disturbing trend (need more data in weeks to come to establish a trend).  Money seems to be pouring out of municipals faster than it came in.  I think figure 1's startling chart sums it up pretty well.
Figure 1.

It makes you really wonder, what is going on in municipals.  Somebody knows something is up in the municipalities.  Could it be that they are drowning in debt (CA, NY, IL and etc) and need a bailout or must default? (obviously this has been stated for months now, if not the last year).  This action has to make you wonder if something is coming sooner than later, to make such a turn in municipal bonds.  In two weeks we have almost wiped out all that was put in since July 28th 2010.  The municipal sell off has distorted the chart in Figure 2, so reference Figure 4 for a better picture of Bonds as a whole.
Figure 2

Again, domestic stocks continue to get hammered with $2.585 billion dollars leaving the market bringing the total to $52.097 billion since July 28th of 2010.  Foreign stocks seen a slowdown this week with only $141 million going into them.  You might wonder, well if all this money is coming out of the market why is the stock market continually going up and where is the liquidity coming from?  Well that is explainable, liquidity is most certainly being well served by the HFT (High Frequency Trading) systems and the money is coming from the FED POMO purchases to the primary dealers (click the blue highlighted text for more details).  The money the FED feeds to the Primary dealers then go into the market to hold it up and to create profits on free money for the primary dealers, while the U.S. tax payers fund the whole operation.
Figure 3.

As shown in Figure 4, Taxable Bonds continue to be purchased while municipals are experiencing a sell off right now.
Figure 4.

Chris Whalen on Where the Money Went

Chris Whalen and Dylan Ratigan discuss where the bailout money went to and what they did with it.  Chris and Dylan talk about how Goldman Sachs received billions in taxpayer money and did not put it into the economy, instead sent it overseas.  $3.3 trillion dollars went into these institutions and they gave themselves record bonuses with our money.  Chris also discusses why big corporations are sitting on cash right now and not making any big moves.  A must hear interview by Dylan for all.

FED POMO Purchase Update

Well these updates just keep coming in on a daily basis these days (non-stop printing press).  The FED POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) purchase of $8.174 billion dollars.  This brings the total from August 17th 2010 to $145.703 billion dollars to date.
The next chart shows the sharp climb since the beginning of November (after elections btw).  The way we are going this chart will begin to point almost straight up.
Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:12/01/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/02/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:06/30/2016 - 11/30/2017
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$8,174
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$30,144

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Larry Kudlow WikiLeaks on BAC

I hope Dick is right on this bet on buying BAC, if he isn't people are gonna be very upset.

FED POMO Purchases Update

The FED performed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase today worth $6.810 billion dollars.  This brings the grand total since August 17th 2010 to $137.529 billion dollars.  The FED has cranked up the printing presses in high gear lately.  One would think Gold would go up as much as is being printed.
Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:11/30/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/01/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:12/31/2014 - 05/31/2016
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$6,810
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$23,532

The Pension/Retirement Account Grab

I did a post a day or so ago about how Argentina and Hungary were taking over private citizens retirement accounts and had thought, they were the only ones.  It seems this is a theme that is  spreading/gaining momentum.  France taken over retirement accounts of their people and Ireland has done the same.  The Polish government denied planning to do so to their citizens after those plans were leaked.  Rumors have floated to the effect that the U.S. is looking at this possibility and converting 401k's into government annuities (Not confirmed).  Here are the links to the articles per country.


Another article entitled "The Global Pension Grab" goes over each one briefly for more of an overview.  This is disturbing trend and one that we don't want in the United States.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Karl Denninger on Austerity

Jim Rickards on Spain and Portugal's Debt

Peter Schiff on Ireland

FED POMO Purchase Update

The FED performed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase of $7.229 billion dollars.  This latest purchase brings the total to $130.719 billion dollars in POMO Purchases since August 17th 2010.  It will be interesting to see how may purchases get executed by the end of the year.

Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:11/29/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:1:15 PM
Close Time:2:00 PM
Settlement Date:11/30/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:05/31/2013 - 11/15/2014
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$7,226
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$29,502

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Weekly Food Stamp Report

I apologize for the food stamp graphs in the past, it actually wouldn't show the bars for anything over 1 million (I have fixed that).  Going forward the data is being archived to show the growth in the number of food-stamp recipients as well.  Below find the updated graph:
As you can see, this is much clearer on showing which states are most impacted.  Here is the data to support the graph as well:
StateNumber on Foodstamps

Total number of persons on Food Stamps: 42,389,619

Weekly Updated Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk's updated Unofficial Problem Bank List reveals that 919 banks are now at risk.  The FDIC's failed bank list revealed no banks had failed this week, but CR's update did log one bank which was removed from the Problem Bank List:
The sole removal this week is the termination of an action by the FDIC against Torrey Pines Bank, San Diego, CA ($1.2 billion Ticker: WAL).
There were 17 additions to the problem bank list, which brought the total to 919 institutions and the assets of these 919 is at $410.2 billion.
Among the 17 additions this week are the Bank of the Orient, San Francisco, CA ($675 million); Town & Country Bank and Trust Company, Bardstown, KY ($454 million Ticker: FHDG); Border State Bank, Greenbush, MN ($347 million); McHenry Savings Bank, McHenry, IL ($271 million); and SouthBank, a Federal Savings Bank, Huntsville, AL ($265 million).
[Read More...]

Weekly KWN Interviews

This week King World News interviews Chris Whalen, John Embry and Rob McEwen on Metals, housing, big banks, the economy and more. 

Chris Whalen - Discusses how Governments have been trying to paper over their debt problems and now that is coming to a head.  Chris says a restructuring will have to occur in some major banks due to hidden losses (hidden through recent accounting rule changes).   When adding more debt becomes a problem and is no longer the way people do business or handle their lives, the economy will have to settle down to adjust to that.  Chris mentions that Bankruptcy is needed by some of these big banks, but has been avoided.  The Founders meant bankruptcy as a way to clean the system and we are not pursuing it due to the ramifications of doing it, so we continue to take on more debt.  Chris also talks about the pressures coming for the states budgets and stagflation (which puts pressure on the consumer).
John Embry - Discusses the main media's negativity on Gold, which has created a wrongful negativity impacting gold and will cause gold to shoot higher down the road.  John mentions that Eric Sprott believes Silver will hit $50 in the next few months, as well as the manipulation of silver being exposed adding to the acceleration.  John rightly mentions that QE is only necessary cause nobody else will purchase our debt, which forces the FED to have to buy it.  John discusses his views on the Euro and where it may possibly go.
Rob McEwen - Discusses how we got to the point we are at and how the government is looking to fight the problem we face now with Quantitative Easing (QE).  Rob talks about historical parallels where other countries performed the same type of printing that caused their currencies to go to zero.

Note: Chris Whalen has written a book that is supposed to be a pretty good read on our financial history called Inflated.

Losing Our Rights Through Fear Mongering

Well, a disappointing Thanksgiving where travelers failed to protest, defending their rights, protecting them from the TSA's illegal search and seizure.  We are now exposing ourselves to additional radiation with levels really unknown unless you believe the company that makes them (if so you've never seen  class action lawsuit commercials against drug companies that produce drugs that people are dying  or are sick from).  Lets assume the radiation levels are nominal (a little more can never hurt right), you still have an issue that the pictures of your body naked are in the hands of people other than you meaning your picture could end up on some website at some point.  

Now you can say well it protects us against the dangers of flying, well apparently that is not true as those that would do you harm have already found their way around these scanners (so your just doing it for fun) and the scans really didn't find much more than what was already being done in the first place.  What has been accomplished is a violation of your rights, the 4th amendment covers illegal search and seizure.
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
By tolerating these searches and not voicing our opinion to stop them, we are giving up our rights in the name of terror.  If we don't stop this, then what is next, as now a precedent has been established.  Write your congressman, governor and senator and tell them you don't want this personal violation to continue.