Economic Charts

All economic charts are at the bottom of the page.

Friday, December 31, 2010

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

This weeks Initial claims showed a big improvement in the number of people claiming unemployment.  Initial claims are the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the prior week.   The forecast called for 416k initial claims, but the actual headline number was 388k.  

The delta in revisions are staying around the 2/3k area, which is a good sign they are stabilizing.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

James Rickards on China

FED POMO Purchase

The FED printed more money today through the POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) mechanism. Today $5.387 billion was printed bringing the total since August 17th 2010 to $240.580 billion dollars and since Nov 3rd (when the FED announced the printing of $600/900 billion) $176.120 billion dollars.

OPERATION 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:12/29/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/30/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:06/30/2012 - 06/15/2013
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$5,387
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$21,802

Weekly Fund Flows

This past weeks fund flows showed inflows of cash into stocks (Domestic and Foreign) and outflows of cash from Bonds.  Domestic stocks had $335 million in inflows, Foreign stocks saw inflows of $3.604 billion, Taxable bonds saw outflows of $837 million and Municipals experienced another large outflow of $3.531 billion.
Just a stunning reversal in Bonds has taken place and stocks turning the other direction as investors grow tired of watching the market go up without them (due to money printing and injection by the FED).  Investors seem to be dipping their toe in the stock market.

Last week marked the first time in months that money flowed into Domestic stocks, we'll have to watch going forward to see if this was just a breather or something more.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

CB Consumer Confidence Dips in December

Well this was somewhat of a surprise due to all the rhetoric surrounding consumer spending going up, consumer confidence has gone down in the month of December.  The CB Consumer Confidence Index is the level of a composite index based on surveyed households ( is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households) and is considered to be a leading indicator of consumer confidence. Uh Oh, somebody should have told the retailers that. The forecast for the CBCC Index called for an index of 56.2, but the actual headline number was 52.5.  Lynn Franco, Director of the Consumer Research said:
"Despite this month's modest decline, consumer confidence is no worse off today than it was a year ago. Consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy and labor market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious. Thus, all signs continue to suggest that the economic expansion will continue well into 2011, but that the pace of growth will remain moderate."
Wow, well a year ago everybody's expectations were pretty much in the toilet and with retail sales reported to be "better than its been in years" how do these two correlate.  Well we know that their is a correlation between retail sales and consumer spending (consumers have to spend to make retailers sales go up), normally consumers spend when they feel things are growing positive (consumer confidence), not negative.  Well, perhaps retailers did well due to recession fatigue and consumers just gave in, but I am still asking around and keeping my eye out and I don't see more shoppers than last year, I see less.  Perhaps online sales surpassed "brick and motar" sales (definite possibility).  It does leave me wondering though.

FED POMO Purchase

The FED executed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase today in the amount of $6.78 billion dollars.  This brings the total since August 17th 2010 to $235.193 billion dollars and for the month of December $97.664 billion dollars.
OPERATION 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:12/28/2010
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:12/29/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:06/30/2013 - 11/30/2014
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$6,780
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$23,567