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Friday, December 3, 2010

Monthly ISM NMI Update

Novembers ISM NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) which was reported to be improved and in some ways it was and some ways it was not. ISM NMI is the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It attempts to  measure employment, inventories, new orders, prices, backlog and such based on surveyed information from about 400 purchasing agents.  The forecasted number called for an index of 54.7, but the actual headline number was 55.0.  
Figure 1.

Figure 2 shows Business Activity and Backlog Orders decreased which is a negative sign for current business.  New orders and Export orders were up, which is a positive sign as it fills a pipeline of work and shows increasing business.
Figure 2.

In figure 3 Prices decreased which is very good for business (cheaper to produce goods).  The concerns here are the build up of inventories, if this is to fill orders it may be a wash.  We will have to see what happens in next months report to orders continue to grow.
 Figure 3.

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