Economic Charts

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Sunday, May 1, 2011

Weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk has released its latest "Unofficial Problem Bank List" that increased to 984 institutions.  There were 6 removals from the list (including the 5 bank failures from the FDIC failed bank list) and 14 additions to the problem list with assets of $422.1 billion dollars.  To read more specifics please click here.


StateChg
CA1
CO1
DE1
GA-1
IA1
ID1
KY1
MI-1
MN1
MS-1
NC1
OH1
SC1
WA-1
WI2

Weekly M1 and M2 Money Supply

This week M1 money supply (which includes currency, checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits) saw an increase of 0.25%.  M2 money supply (which includes M1 plus retail Money Market Mutual Funds, savings and small time deposits) saw an increase of 0.14%.  Year over Year M1 increased 9.83% and M2 increased 4.82%.  

Weekly FDIC Bank Failures

This week the FDIC had 5 bank failures bringing the total number of banks failed to 39 institutions.  This past week we lost Community Central Bank in Mount Clemens Michigan, The Park Avenue Bank in Valdosta Georgia, First Choice Community Bank in Dallas Georgia, Cortez Community Bank in Brooksville Florida and First National Bank of Central Florida in Winter Park Florida.  The past 2 weeks have shown an acceleration in the number of lost banks.  We'll have to see if this trend continues and/or accelerates.  Currently the number of banks failed is behind 2010's number at this point one year earlier.

Weekly FED POMO Purchases

The FED performed four POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) purchases this week in the amounts of ; 7.24 billion, 1.999 billion, 6.678 billion and 6.679 billion dollars.  This brings the total since November 3rd 2010 (The day the FED announced the printing of $600 billion by June 30 2010) to $589.08 billion dollars and since August 17th 2010 to $644.54 billion dollars.


Weekly Fund Flows

The fund flows report for 4/20/2011 showed stronger buying in domestic stocks again.  Domestic stocks showed $1.93 billion dollars of in-flows and Foreign stocks had $1.15 billion dollars of in-flows.  Taxable bonds continued to show strong buying with $3.32 billion dollars of in-flow, while Municipal bonds continued to see strong selling with -$1.151 billion of out-flows.  This is the 24th straight week of out-flows in municipal bonds. 




Thursday, April 28, 2011

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The initial unemployment claims were released today confirming the trend toward higher unemployment.  Initial Unemployment Claims is a measure of the number of persons whom filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the prior week.  This provides an early look at what our unemployment rate may look like for the month.  This weeks forecasted number called for 392k, but the actual headline number came in at 429k.  This is a large jump in the number of unemployed and has increased the 4 week moving average to 406.5k from the previous weeks 396.25k.  The 4 week moving average smoothes out the distortions in the numbers and provide a trend.  Currently the 4wk moving average has been trending up, showing that our unemployment rate should be notching up again as well.  Last weeks number was revised from 403k to 404k which is one of the smallest revisions we have seen in a while.  Again, we need to keep our eyes on the revisions.


Sunday, April 24, 2011

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

This week the Initial Unemployment Claims, which measures the number of persons who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time, was worse than forecasted (as always).  The forecasted number was 394k and the actual headline number came in at 403k.  I make the distinction of headline number as it is the first release of the number, unfortunately the one most paid attention too (instead of the revised number).  Last weeks number was revised up from 412k to 416k edging the delta to 4k from last weeks 3k.   Given this, we can possibly expect revisions for this weeks number to be conservatively 406k.   The 4 week moving average moved up from 391k to 396k which shows a trend higher for the past few weeks.  


Weekly Fund Flows

This weeks fund flows report showed what seems to be major confusion in the domestic stock market (based on the past few weeks trend).  Last weeks number for domestic outflows was revised to a -$644 million dollars (hundreds of millions worse than what was reported the week prior), but this weeks domestic stock flows showed a in-flow of $495 million dollars.  Foreign stocks saw a reduction of in-flows bringing this weeks in-flows to $340 million dollars.  Taxable Bonds saw in-flows of $3.581 billion dollars (still major piling into taxable bonds) and Municipal bonds (with 21 weeks of selling) had  out-flows of $1.167 billion dollars.  


Weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk released its "Unofficial Problem Bank List" this week with 976 institutions on the list.  There were 4 removals and 2 additions this week.  The FDIC failed bank list had no banks listed this week as failures, most likely due to the Easter holiday close on friday.  So we have yet to see if we have any banks failed from last week, they will be deferred to next week.  The 976 institutions have an asset value of $422.2 billion dollars.  Check out the article at CalculatedRisk by clicking here.


StateChg
IL-3
MD+1
TX+1
UT-1

Weekly M1/M2 Changes

This weeks M1 money supply (includes Currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits) decreased by -1.06% from 1903.6 billion in the previous month to 1883.7 billion this month.  M2 money supply (includes M1 plus retail Money Market Mutual Funds, savings and small time deposits) increased by 0.06% from 8922.4 billion in the previous month to 8928.1 billion this month.  M2 continues to rise week over week.  Year-over-Year M1 expanded by 9.74% and M2 has expanded 4.53%.


This Weeks POMO Purchases

This week the FED performed 3 POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) purchases for; 2 billion, 6.678 billion and 1.5 billion.  This brings the total since November 3rd 2010 (when the FED announced the printing of $600 billion dollars by June 30th 2011) to $557.484 billion dollars and since August 17th 2010 to $621.944 billion dollars.


Sunday, April 17, 2011

Weekly King World News Interviews

This week on KingWorldNews Eric King has a terrific line up with Michael Pento, Rick Rule, James Grant and Jim Rickards.  These interviews span multiple topics from the health of the stock market, the debt situation, Gold/silver, Japan economy as well as numerous other topics in our economy and their effects.

Michael Pento - Discusses inflation and how it is destroying the middle class currently.  Michael says that Wages and Salaries have been falling while year-over-year prices have increased dramatically.  Michael discusses various statistics that show huge inflation yet the FED says they have nominal inflation.  He mentions how multiple countries have raised their interest rates and would probably be better served there as the FED has kept interest rates at zero.  He mentions Q1 2011 GDP will be less than 2% and if you use a real rate of inflation which is close to 9.5/10% we have a very negative GDP reading.  Michael believes the cuts being proposed still doesn't get the job done, even with the very aggressive Ryan plan.  Michael puts together a very strong argument in this area.  Michael believes the only way out of this debt issue is to default and that is what Gold and Silver is telling us.  He believes we are experiencing a lower standard of living in the U.S. due to the currency destruction making discretionary spending dwindling and non-discretionary costs rising very quickly.  This whole interview is a wealth of information and is a must listen.  

Rick Rule - Discusses how silver is taking off, but Rick is taking some profits of silver (but is exiting the trade on the equity side, not the physical).  Rick says that physical silver market is extremely tight as far as physical inventory.  Rick says he doesn't think we are in such a gold bull market as much as we are in a paper bear market (causing the price to go higher).  Rick thinks long term he is a bull on Gold, but believes short term we may see a retrenchment of gold.  Rick says that their seems to be a race to devaluate all paper currencies, but gold is the only one that nobody is interested in or can devaluate.  Rick says in the next 5 years the energy complex will increase significantly for multiple reason (supply side, growing energy demand).  Rick goes on the discuss more about energy (impact of Fukishima on Uranium) and other interesting topics.

James Grant - Discusses how the FED owns the stock market and the FED claims responsibility for ensuring the markets rise since QE1.  James asks what happens if the FED doesn't do QE3, which may cause the market to fall hard (making equity holders suffer).  James says the humble saver has been left with nothing in their money market savings.  He says the FED has been managed negating the original founders goals and provides multiple examples of those failures.  James says he is bullish on gold right now mainly due to the reduction in confidence around the world in central banks ability to manage fiat currency.  James believes we need to move back to a gold standard to manage money supply and says it need more study as to what number gold would have be valued at.  James makes the best analogy I have heard which is "the country needs a debit card, not a credit card", which would definitely manage our spending.  He says we need to get back to honest money (money convertibility to an asset) to regain confidence in our currency.  James goes on with a very valuable discussion on multiple topics.

Jim Rickards - Discusses events around the world starting in Japan, where we are a month from the event and there are still people struggling to survive.  Also he says that Japan is not going to recover from this incident very quickly (like is being said).  There are multiple issues in the supply chain which is impacting businesses around the world.  Jim says China and Japan could form a regional currency long term due to strengthened relations and linkages (to the dollars detriment).  Jim says the Libya issue isn't as cut and dry as one might think with multiple issues on both sides (rebels and Khadafi's side).  Jim raises some very interesting complexities in the Libyan conflict currently that are not easily solved.  Jim says that the endgame of the Libyan war is a stalemate and has not stopped the decrease in oil flow.  Jim discusses changes on how the FED communicates with the public (more like the other central banks in the world).   He believes that the FED is going to let QE end in June (but will not terminate early) and will work on perpetual QE, which Jim discussed weeks ago (the size of the FEDs balance sheet is so big that they can continue to perform operations perpetually off the maturities).   By creating higher inflation the FED creates negative interest rates and increases borrowing and stimulates spending.  He says QE is not about monetization it is about suppressing interest rates.  Jim says gold doesn't have many industrial uses and its increase has been due to dollar devaluation (gold as a currency) and may not move with other commodities that have industrial ties.  Jim doesn't think gold will go to the 1330 level (be the bottom now) and goes on to make the argument on why gold is not a bubble due to being under-allocated by most.  Jim discusses more market impacting topics which are very important and must listen topics.

Weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk released its weekly "Unofficial Problem Bank List" this week with 978 institutions on the list.  This week the FDIC lost 6 more banks which helped reduce the list.  In all there were 13 removals from the list (including he FDIC 6) and 9 additions to the list.  This is a lot of activity for one week.  The 978  institutions hold assets valued at $429.4 billion dollars.  The following states experienced the following change:


StateChange
AL-1
CA+1
DC-1
FL-1
MD-1
MS-1
OH+1
PA+1
SC-1
TX+1
VA-1
WI-1

Weekly M1 and M2 Money Supply

This week M1 money supply (which includes currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits) increased by 0.057% and M2 (which includes M1 plus Money Market Mutual Funds, savings and small time deposits) increased by 0.29%.  Year over Year M1 increased by 11.7% and M2 increased 4.5%.  M3 (which is M2 +large deposits and other large, long-term deposits) has been rising since mid 2nd Quarter of 2010 after contracting since 2008 (probably due to loan defaults).


M3 Courtesy of Shadowstats.com