The initial unemployment claims were released today confirming the trend toward higher unemployment. Initial Unemployment Claims is a measure of the number of persons whom filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the prior week. This provides an early look at what our unemployment rate may look like for the month. This weeks forecasted number called for 392k, but the actual headline number came in at 429k. This is a large jump in the number of unemployed and has increased the 4 week moving average to 406.5k from the previous weeks 396.25k. The 4 week moving average smoothes out the distortions in the numbers and provide a trend. Currently the 4wk moving average has been trending up, showing that our unemployment rate should be notching up again as well. Last weeks number was revised from 403k to 404k which is one of the smallest revisions we have seen in a while. Again, we need to keep our eyes on the revisions.
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