Monthly Personal Income, Disposable Income, Spending and Savings

The Personal Income, Disposable Income, Spending and Savings report was released covering the month of October.  The forecast for personal spending called for a 0.5% increase Month over Month, but it actually came in at 0.4% showing a slight slowdown in consumption.  The reports have gone through months and months of revisions again, therefore the data is changed (I have no idea why they revise numbers back to April, you'd think they would be pretty concrete by now, but they do).  As you can see all categories are up from the previous month, just not as much as economists would like.

The Personal Savings data show that savings is up slightly from the previous month, but revisions all the way back to April have changed the Personal Savings data wildly.

Now obviously Keynesian's want personal savings to be down (as that means people are not spending) and spending to be up much higher to spur a recovery.  Unfortunately as we are high levels of unemployment and everybody is worried about the future, the money is being reigned in perpetuating the problem (maybe we should consider a new system that doesn't involve spending yourself into oblivion).

Weekly Initial Claims

This weeks initial claim showed improvement, but before you get all giddy, consider that this is the Christmas hiring season so the numbers are very distorted currently as these are temporary jobs.  Initial Claims are the number of persons who filed for unemployment for the first time in the previous week.  The forecast number called for 434k and the actual headline number came in at 407k.  Until after the Christmas spending and returns season, we have to consider these numbers distortions.

 

The delta in revisions has come in considerably now that jobs have improved, I would expect them to get worse after the holiday spending season.

Monthly Durable Goods Don't Look So Good

Octobers Durable Goods numbers, released today, were less than impressive.  The Durable Goods number is the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. Durable goods are defined as hard products having a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes. Core Durable Goods are Durable Goods minus transportation.   Durable Goods forecast was for 0.2%, but actually came in -3.3%.  Core Durable Goods was forecast for 0.7%, but actually came in at -2.7%.

Monthly Existing Home Sales

The monthly Existing Home Sales was released yesterday for the Month of October. Existing Home Sales measures the annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. It is considered a leading indicator of economic health cause the transactions from one sale ripples throughout the financial industry (hence our problem in the first place).  The forecasted number called for 4.51 million, but the headline number disappointed by coming in at 4.43 million. 

A little TSA Humor

Well it seem the Japanese even think the U.S. TSA has gone to far and made a very comical skit on TSA and the pat downs.

Euro or U.S. with More Financial Trouble?

Dylan Ratigan on Property Rights

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FED POMO Purchase

The FED performed yet another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase.  Today's purchase was $1.629 billion bringing the total cumulative purchases since August 17th 2010 to $123.493 billion dollars.

 

 

Operation 1 - RESULTS

Operation Date:	11/23/2010
Operation Type:	Outright TIPS Purchase
Release Time:	10:15 AM
Close Time:	11:00 AM
Settlement Date:	11/24/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:	07/15/2012 - 02/15/2040
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :	$1,629
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :	$8,592

Insiders Gettin Out While the Gettin is Good

My source for insider selling has disappeared, but Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com has posted the recent insiders selling.    Insider S&P selling was 8279.5 times more than insider buying, which has been the trend for months.  

Total Insider Selling:	$1,247,500,249
Total Insider Buying:	$150,673

Tyler says "There is no point to even discuss what this data point indicates", but I think the correlation is something average investors should be aware of.  Insiders have been selling while the FED has been executing its POMO purchases (holding up the market).  I suspect insiders know that this is their last chance to get out while the FED holds everything up.  ( Read More ... )

Battle for Property Routes

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Another FED POMO Purchase

The FED executed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase took place, with a purchase of $8.257 billion dollars bringing the total since August 17th 2010 to $121.864 billion dollars.

As we look at the cumulative graph, the curve is starting to point sharper.  I think we are going to see this move much sharper over the next few weeks (meaning accelerating printing).

Operation 1 - RESULTS

Operation Date:	11/22/2010
Operation Type:	Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:	10:15 AM
Close Time:	11:00 AM
Settlement Date:	11/23/2010
Maturity/Call Date Range:	02/15/2018 - 11/15/2020
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :	$8,257
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :	$33,513

Foreclosure Fraud How Did it Occur?

TSA Gone Too Far

Has the TSA gone to far in their security tactics?  I think in most thinking American's minds the answer is yes.  The strip searches seem unreal to most, but here is a video of a boy getting searched by the TSA, simply ridiculous.

The body scanners that are showing up in some airports blasting you with radiation is another sign we have gone overboard.  Most Americans won't think twice about it until they get cancer from over exposure to this radiation.  I for one will not be flying with my family for anything.  Americans need to let the TSA know that this is not going to be tolerated.

King World News Interviews

This week KWN interviews Pierre Lassonde, James Turk, Rick Rule and Art Cashin.

Pierre Lassonde - Discusses Gold prices and the correction in Gold that has happened or could happen.  Pierre estimates a 10-20% correction in Gold at some point, but in the long run it will continue higher.  Pierre talks about investing in small miners and the possibilities of them being gobbled up by the larger miners.
James Turk - Discusses Gold price suppression and how that is now changing due to the attention around price manipulation in the Gold and Silver markets.  James discusses the Bull market in the mining stocks and XAU and HUI due to the wealth that is being created.  James sees gold going to 8k and 400 silver by 2015.
Rick Rule - Discusses physical inventory of the silver market and how it will be tough to come by in coin form due to tightness.  This could cause the price to go higher.  Rick also discusses Agriculture and how we could experience food shortages in the future.
Art Cashin - Discusses the markets action over the past few weeks, commodities moving up and China starting to hoard base metals.  Art also brings up China's raising interest rates suppressing commodities pricing.

Unofficial Problem Bank List Hits 903

This week CalculatedRisks Unofficial Problem Bank List reached 903 institutions.  There were four removals (this includes the 3 that were on the FDIC's failed bank list).  The banks that failed this week, according to the FDIC failed bank list, were; First Banking Center in Burlington WI, Gulf State Community Bank in Carrabelle FL, Allegiance Bank of North America in Bala Cynwyd PA. The other removal was "the termination of a Supervisory Agreement against The First National Bank of Trenton in Trenton TX by the OCC (per Calculated Risk).  There was nine additions this week as well.  Click here to see the full story.