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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

ADP Employment Report

The ADP report for the month of October showed a positive growth of 43,000 jobs and Septembers employment numbers were revised from -39,000 to -2,000.  The employment breakdown is as follows:


Manufacturing was not counted in the number as it was an addendum, if you calculate in manufacturing the gain was only 31,000.  The comments made in the release are what are more significant.
Since employment began rising in February, the monthly gain has averaged 34,000 with a range of -2,000 to +65,000 during the period. October’s figure is within this recent range and is consistent with the deceleration of economic growth that occurred in the spring. Employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate. Given modest GDP growth in the second and thirds quarters, and the usual lag of employment behind GDP, it would not be surprising to see several more months of lethargic employment gains, even if the economic recovery gathers momentum.
Therefore, I don't expect this to change the unemployment rate whatsoever.

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