Economic Charts

All economic charts are at the bottom of the page.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

A Little Reality During Recent Recovery Hype

It seems lately a lot of hype is coming out about the double dip being averted.  This could become a self fulfilling prophecy as more and more businesses and people are starting to believe it.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a recovery (a real recovery).  The problem is that we would simply be delaying the debt bubble and we don't know how much time this would buy us (could be 6 months, 1 or 2 years).  The debt doesn't just go away.  Putting the hype and possible double dip aversion aside the reality of it, when you look at the data, shows that the economy is not healthy.  The two numbers that were rallied upon and were supposed to be a positive sign were the ISM and Unemployment.  Lets get real on this one, the ISM wasn't good,  I did an analysis on this earlier (here) and it showed manufacturers were ramping up for demand that simply wasn't there.  The unemployment number went up, so what are we celebrating about there?  Sure nonfarm payrolls looked better (after the government revised the numbers for June and July for some reason), but it was a sideways number (here) that indicated for 2 months we lost 54k jobs in nonfarm.  Charts have been updated at the bottom of the blog for you to assess for yourself.  Here is a video of Nouriel Roubini's outlook on the economy to help put some reality into the hype.

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