Economic Charts

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Sunday, March 27, 2011

Weekly King World News Interviews

This week King World News interviews Bill Fleckenstein, John Hathaway, Gerald Celente and Jim Rickards.  Topics cover war in Libya, unrest in the Middle East, QE II/III, what these major events mean to our economy, as well as Gold and Silver's performance.

Bill Fleckenstein - Discusses the fact that the Yen gained in strength against the dollar over the past few weeks brining it under 80 per dollar, the FED then stepped in to strengthen the dollar against the Yen to bring it back above 80.  Bill says all fiat currencies are actually in trouble so comparing the dollar vs any fiat currency doesn't make a lot of sense.  Bill believes QE2 will stop and will never shrink the balance sheet.  If an event occurs to assist, then QE3 will appear.  Bill believes their is a whole event coming in housing precipitating housing down further, but their are so many problems currently any of of them is a catalyst to bring the economy down.  Bill discusses other very interesting topics including inflation.

John Hathaway - Discusses how we need to see Gold stay above 1440 to be sustained, as well as, take off from here.  John thinks if it were to trade this way for a week or so then gold will take off.  John says major events like Libya and Japan could be more reasons to continue money printing.  John says that gold is still under-owned and the average investor things that gold is where it is at due to Libya, when that is the smaller story.  John continues to talk about gold stocks, catalysts for gold and what worries him in the gold market.

Gerald Celente - Discusses the war in Libya and the unrest in the middle east, as well as why the U.S. would go in to assist a country needing it.  Gerald also discusses the how the Government wants to balance the budget and we are cutting funding for our people, yet we always have money to fund wars.  Gerald brings up a lot of good questions on the economy and the current wars we are in, as well as draws some of his own conclusions as to why we are where we are.

Jim Rickards - Discusses more on his QEII interview and concepts he brought out on permanent on-going QE.  Jim re-iterates that the FEDs balance sheet that the rollover of maturity can be used to perform an informal QEIII.  This makes it look like QE ended from a political standpoint, but is really going on through debt maturity.  In this interview Jim corrects some of his statements on QE and monetization for listeners.  He says the point of QE was to keep interest rates low which involves buying enough debt to keep fear in the market to drive interest rates down.  Jim regards the Japan event and Libya issue as providing an oil supply shock and demand shock as Japan will have to go to oil and gas to take up for loss in nuclear (putting a floor under oil above 80).  Jim says given the debt problems in the world even small shocks can drag us back down.  One of the FED officials confirmed Jim's analysis of on-going QE by the FED through debt maturity.  Jim also mentions that their is still a chance for QEIII due to world events happening in the past few weeks.  Jim goes on to talk about the FEDs toolbox and different things it can do, very interesting analysis.

King World News has a great weekly Metals wrap that is a must listen if you are a metals investor as well.  KWN also posts articles on metals, the economy and other interesting topics, so be sure to visit them at http://www.kingworldnews.com

Weekly M1 and M2 Money Supply

This week the M1 (which includes Currency, Travelers checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits) decreased by -0.17% and M2 (which includes M1 plus, Money Market Mutual Funds, Savings and small time deposits) decreased by -0.28%.

Weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk published their weekly "Unofficial Problem Bank List", which had increased to 985 institutions with assets of $431.1 billion.  This could make the latter part of this year a real problem for banks as the list has increased in the number of banks it picks up.  Their were eight additions and 3 removals from the list.  For more details on additions/removals see CalculatedRisk.com.


The following table shows the number of institutions added/removed from the list by state:
StateChange
AL+1
AR+1
CA+1
GA+1
MI-1
NJ-1
NV+1
TN+2
TX-2

Weekly FDIC Bank Failures

We had one bank fail this week, The Bank of Commerce in Wood Dale, IL, bringing the total banks failed in 2011 to 26 institutions.  We are now trending slower than last year on the number of banks failed to date.

Weekly Fund Flows

This past weeks fund flows report continued to see selling in domestic stocks and municipal bonds, while foreign stocks and Taxable bonds continued to climb.  Domestic stocks saw out-flows of -$1.307 billion dollars, while foreign stocks saw in-flows of $1.889 billion dollars.  Municipal bonds continued out-flows of -$618 million, while Taxables had an in-flow of $3.493 billion.

FED POMO Purchases

The FED performed multiple POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) purchases this week totally $29.412 billion dollars.   This brings the total since November 3rd 2010 (the day the FED announced the printing of $600 billion by June of 2011) to $478.842 and brings the total since August 17th 2010 to $543.302 billion.  



Monday, March 21, 2011

Monthly Existing Home Sales

The February existing home sales number was abysmal today.  The Existing home sales number is an annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. It is considered a leading indicator of economic health due to the ripple effects it has in the economy (finance, furniture and home improvement).  The forecast called for 5.15 million, but the actual headline number is 4.88 million.  This was a 9.6% decrease in existing home sales from January's revised number of 5.4 million.  

Lawrence Yun the NAR chief economist remarked:
“Housing affordability conditions have been at record levels and the economy has been improving, but home sales are being constrained by the twin problems of unnecessarily tight credit, and a measurable level of contract cancellations from some appraisals not supporting prices negotiated between buyers and sellers,” he said. “This tug and pull is causing a gradual but uneven recovery. Existing-home sales remain 26.4 percent above the cyclical low last July.”

FED POMO Purchase

The FED performed another POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) purchase in the amount of $2.070 billion.  This brings the total since November 3rd 2010 (when the FED announced the printing of $600 billion dollars to $451.5 billion and since August 17th 2010 to $515.960 billion dollars.



OPERATION 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date:03/21/2011
Operation Type:Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time:10:15 AM
Close Time:11:00 AM
Settlement Date:03/22/2011
Maturity/Call Date Range:08/15/2028 - 02/15/2041
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) :$2,070
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :$8,323

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Monthly Housing Data

February Housing Data was released this past week which turned out to be a disappointment with permits and starts coming way under forecast.  Housing starts forecasted 580k but came in at 479k and Housing Permits forecasted 580K but came in at 517k.  Housing completions beat last months 510k with a number of 581k.  Overall the housing data did not look very well for the short term.

Food Inflation

Weekly King World News Interviews

This week King World News interviews James Dines, Michael Pento, Rick Rule and Chris Whalen.  These interviews discusses the Japan devastation, rebuilding, real inflation in the U.S., depreciation of the dollar (breaking below support), Uranium, Loan modifications and bank balance sheets.  Great interviews that hit multiple facets of the economy, really highlighting the issues in todays economy.

James Dines - Discusses Japan situation due to the disaster that has happened.  Also, BOJ starting printing additional money to clean up this effort, which is helping cause further inflation.  James talks about the worries that are occurring in our nations food supply and the increasing prices effecting availability.  He also talks about how turning food into energy is creating further shortages in food and increases in price.  James sees silver going well over $100 per ounce.  James also discusses this race to rearm weapons all over the world like in the 1930's.  James points out that people that don't understand currencies will participate in the biggest wealth transfer in history (on the losing end).  James points out that Gold is money and regardless of price, it will always be the central part of money.

Michael Pento - Discusses how Japan is the 2nd largest country holder of our debt (approx $900 billion).  He says they should be a seller of the bonds to use the money to rebuild and further their economy, but instead they have printed 31 trillion Yen in the last 3 days depreciating the value of the Yen.  Michael asks who is going to be a purchaser of debt if the Treasury needs to continue to sell bonds (as Japan will be busy rebuilding).  Michael says that the U.S. will be paying 50% of our revenue, just to service the interest on our debt.  Michael believes for some form of default on its outstanding national debt in the future.  We also hit a 52 week low on the Dollar index (below 76) which is a bad sign (broke through support).  Michael points out that most Americans have no real retirement and will rely on Social Security which will not be there for them.  Government inflation numbers do not really reflect true inflation and the FED is over its stated 2% even with the corrupt calculation of CPI and PPI today.  Michael says we are actually at 9% inflation currently.

Rick Rule - Discusses Japans nuclear accident and its effect on Uranium prices around the world.  Pre-Japan, Rick was bullish on energy and post-Japan Uranium has increased over 50% which he believes is due to an on-going bull market in Uranium.  20% of our energy in the U.S. comes from Uranium/Nuclear power and if we were to turn off these plants tomorrow, we would not have electricity.    Rick goes on to make the case for long term investment in Uranium, but short term it may go down as emotional concerns weigh in.  

Chris Whalen - Discusses the organized (or not) investigation in mortgage origination and servicing.  Chris believes this is mostly political fluff and the Attorneys General don't have enough of a case here.  Chris points out with all this loan modification, how are we not marking to market the whole portfolio creating accounting issues.  Chris mentions we will continue seeing foreclosures for some time, which will impact bank earnings (expenses in foreclosures hitting earnings).  Chris also talks about why did we let these banks get so big in the first place (too big to fail) creating and reinforcing their monopoly in the finance industry.  Chris brings up that currently when a loan is originated the loan is sold off to another institution (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) along with the servicing (usually a big bank), but servicing should be retained by the local bank that it originated.  Chris points out that if the limit for conforming jumbo loans is decreased in September, we will see housing prices decrease until the end of the year ( instead it the cap should be increased to 1 million dollars).  Very critical information from Chris on the banking industry and aiding your understanding of it.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

This weeks Initial Unemployment Claims were better than forecast, but still not good.  Initial Unemployment Claims measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in  the prior week.  This week the forecast called for 388k, but the actual headline number came in at 385k.  Last weeks number of 397k was revised up to 401k creating a larger gap in released vs revised.  The 4 week moving average is still heading downward, currently at 393.25k using revised numbers.



Weekly Money Flows

This week in the money flows report domestic stocks continued to sell of but with lesser intensity than the week prior and Municipals continued their sell off.  Domestic stocks saw an out-flow of -$1.129 billion dollars while Foreign stocks saw in-flows of $929 million.  Taxable Bonds saw in-flows of $3.882 billion dollars, while Municipal bonds continued to see out-flows of $681 million dollars.  Municipals has seen a continued sell of for 18 straight weeks now having pulled -$39.505 billion dollars out of Municipal bonds.  


Weekly M1/M2 Money Supply

This week we saw more expansion of the money supply as M1 (which includes: Currency, Travelers Checks, Demand Deposits and other checkable deposits) increased +1.12% from the previous month and +10.10% from the year prior.  M2 (which includes: M1 plus retail Money Market Mutual Funds, Saving and small time deposits) increased +0.18% from the previous month and +3.96% from the year prior.  If we refer to the Money supply chart by www.shadowstats.com at the bottom of this page we will see that M3 is also expanding.  Tones of liquidity being pumped into the system.

Weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List

CalculatedRisk published their weekly Unofficial Problem Bank List this week with a small spike in the number of Problem Banks, brining the total to 982.  There were 21 additions and 3 removals this week.  The 3 removals were for action terminations in Iowa, Minnesota and New Jersey.  Read more here.  The following is a breakdown of problem banks per state:
The following states saw increases/decreases in the number of problem banks from last week:
StateChange
AL+1
AZ+1
CA+2
HI+1
IA-1
IL+2
KS+4
KY+1
MN-1
MO+2
NC+1
ND+1
NJ-1
SD+1
TN+1
TX+2
UT+1