Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

Today the weekly initial unemployment claims were released.  Initial Claims represent the number of people that filed for unemployment for the first time in the prior week.  This can help gauge where the unemployment rate will land at the end of the month.  A growing number of Initial Claims indicates a possible increase in the unemployment rate.  The forecasted number called for 442k, but the actual headline number came in at 439k.  The 4 week moving average is pointing down which can be a good sign, but still too early to tell, especially with the distortion of the Christmas buying season that started in September.

Revisions seem to be narrowing.  The spike in the delta may be due to the use of a revised 4 week moving average that I may have used.  I will recheck that and then republish if it is found to be  in error.